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September 2019 Real Estate Market Update

 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported that home sales increased 46.3% in September 2019 from September 2018.

Compared to the same month last year, home inventory (home listed for sale) stayed relatively the same. As a result, we see the rise in overall Sales-to-Active listing ratio from the same month last year (see Table below).

Sept 2019 Sept 2018
Sales 2343 1601
Inventory 13414 13800
Sales-to-Active listing ratio 17.4% 11.6%

REBGV president Ashley Smith said: “Home buyers are more willing to make offers today, particularly in the townhome and apartment markets.”

We started to see a downward trend in sales to active ratio since reaching a high point of 48% in May 2017. The ratio reached its lowest of 10% in January of this year and started to climb up slowly again (see graph below).

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for September 2019 is 17.4 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 12.7 per cent for detached homes, 18.9 per cent for townhomes, and 21.9 per cent for apartments:

Recently, we helped empty nesters sell their family home and downsize into a condo or townhouse. We helped couples sell their condo and move into a larger home because there’s a new member in the family. People want to move closer to their family/job. People are selling because of divorce/separation. These are all the common reasons why people buy and sell real estate. Business was as usual in the past few months.

Although sellers cannot expect to fetch higher and higher price as we’ve seen in the past couple years (see graph below for Average Sales Prices). Buyers on the other hands have more selection and time to make purchasing decisions.

The Federal Election is coming up in 2 weeks on Oct 21.
Check out the different parties’ platform on housing and other issues here:

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/2019-federal-election-platform-guide-where-the-parties-stand-on-everything/

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May 2019 Real Estate Market Update

According to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s stats report, housing supply had reached 5-year high in May 2019.

REBGV president Ashley Smith said: “High home prices and mortgage qualification issues caused by the federal government’s B20 stress test remain significant factors behind the reduced demand that the market is experiencing today.”

Home sale had increased 44.2% in May as compared to the previous month (April 2019) but compared with May last year, home sales had decreased 6.9% (total 2833 sales recorded in May 2018)

May 2019: Total 2638 home sales
April 2019: Total 1829 home sales
March 2019: Total 1727 home sales
February 2019: Total 1484 home sales
January 2019: Total 1103 home sales

As expected home sales had picked up in Spring but it had not reach the frantic heights as in past years (see graph below):

The Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio that reflects both home sales and inventory in May 2019 were as below:

The Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio for both townhomes and condominiums had reached 20% last month (May 2019). If the ratio surpasses 20% over several months, home prices generally go up according to analysts. It is a great time for buyers of all property types as there are more inventory to choose from and the our real estate market seemed to be very healthy (with no signs of a crash).

If we look at the Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio in different areas, for condominiums, we see a different types of market:

North Delta:           30.0%  seller’s market
Vancouver East:    28.2%  seller’s market
Coquitlam:             24.9%  seller’s market
Surrey:                   23.6%  seller’s market
Metro Vancouver:   21.2%  seller’s market
Burnaby:                19.7%  balanced market
Vancouver West:   18.9%  balanced market
Richmond:             14.9%  balanced market

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 1.75% which kept the bank interest rates at 3.95%. Unlike the central bank’s previous statements, there had been no mention of further increases as the economy had nearly ground to a halt at the beginning of this year.

Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 1.75% (May 29, 2019)

To read the May 2019 stats report from the Real Estate Board, click here.

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October 2017 home sales were 15% above the 10-year October sales average.

Sales-to-active listings ratio for September 2017 was 33.1% for all property types

Sales-to-active listings ratio for different property types:

  • 16.8% for detached homes (balanced supply and demand)
  • 44.8% for townhomes (seller’s market – upward pressure on price)
  • 66% for apartments (seller’s market – upward pressure on price)

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REBGV president Jill Oudil reported: “Conditions continue to vary significantly based on property type. The detached home market is well supplied with homes for sale, which is relieving pressure on prices. It remains a much different story in the townhouse and apartment markets. Buyers of these properties continue to have limited supply to choose from and are seeing upward pressure on prices.”

“The growth in our provincial economy and job market is contributing to today’s demand,” Oudil said. “The federal government’s announcement of plans to tighten mortgage requirements for the seventh time in the last eight years also helped spur activity in the short term. Many buyers are trying to enter the market before the changes are in place.”

Click here for full report